This study analyses the composition of the TOP 100 Bitcoin wallets and gives an idea of motives of the market leaders when buying Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s blockchain technology makes it possible to see all the transactions in the world as well as to track the largest crypto currency players on the market. Having analyzed their trading behavior, we are getting closer to understanding the motives which drive the owners of the richest Bitcoin wallets.
In particular, this study focuses on the analysis of:
– the composition of the TOP 100 Bitcoin wallets;
– motives of the market leaders when buying Bitcoin;
– the moments of time in which the transactions were made.
Data for the study was prepared as a result of manual collection through sites – information aggregators for Bitcoin based on blockchain technology.
Figure 1. Bitcoin distribution between wallets
The distribution of this asset between the addresses brings you to the following conclusions:
– TOP 100 addresses (0.0004% of all addresses) contain on their accounts 20% of all issued Bitcoins;
– 4% of addresses contain 96% of Bitcoins (16,307,088) on their accounts;
– 20 080 934 addresses contain slightly less than 700 000 Bitcoins.
At first glance, the big players own most of coins. A detailed analysis of the TOP 100 wallets shows that some of them were not active for over 5 years.
Figure 2. Bitcoin distribution between TOP 100 wallets
The following data-driven conclusions can be drawn about inactive wallets:
- among the TOP 100 wallets 12 are idle for more than 5 years;
- the total amount on their accounts is ~ 200 000 Bitcoins, which is equivalent to 10% of the total capitalization of the TOP 100 addresses;
- the first replenishment was noted in early April 2010, the latest – in early May 2011;
- these addresses belong to the first Bitcoin developers and miners.
Classification of owners of TOP 100 addresses
Figure 3. Distribution of TOP 100 addresses by category
The analysis of the Bitcoin buying charts by those TOP 100 addresses allowed to divide them into several groups:
- First “whales”:
- this group includes the owners of wallets, which were the first to buy Bitcoin in 2014-2015;
- they conducted 2-3 purchases for several tens of thousands of Bitcoins;
- a coin is held in wallets and does not produce any speculative actions;
- they check their wallet several times during the year;
- there is coordination of actions when buying Bitcoin.
This group includes the owners of the 20 most “rich” addresses.
- The ones ahead of the hype:
- owners of these wallets bought Bitcoin in 2016 – 2017;
- they bought Bitcoin for less than $ 3,000 – $ 4,000;
- they keep the coins and continue to buy in during each significant drawdown of the market;
- they are active market participants;
- they check their wallets several times a month.
- Profit makers:
- bought Bitcoin in August-September 2017;
- active traders, or hedge funds;
- carry out hundreds of large transactions for the purchase and sale of Bitcoin;
- make profit, buy at the bottom, sell at the top;
- the most active participants of the cryptomarket among the TOP 100.
- Confident investors:
- began buying Bitcoin in November 2017 and continue to do so until now;
- many of them bought Bitcoin at a price of $ 15,000;
- keep bying coins;
- committed one or two major transactions to acquire Bitcoin;
- they are passive market participants.
The analysis shows that over 80% of large investors among the TOP 100 follow the classical investment rules:
- “buy and keep”,
- “buy more during market drops”.
It is important to note that in the period from March 19, 2018 to April 19, 2018, 4 more addresses joined the TOP 100, and those topped up their accounts with a one-time payment in the amount of:
- 64 406 BTC (purchase price: $460 577 618)
- 18 618 BTC (purchase price: $152 768 272)
- 11 627 BTC (purchase price: $94 320 306)
- 9 622 BTC (purchase price: $76 341 720)
From these data, within the last 30 days new large players have appeared on the crypto currency market.
Analysis of the time of purchases
The study of transaction dates helps to determine the months in which happened the most frequent large purchases of Bitcoin (starting from 5000 coins).
Figure 4. Distribution of purchases by month from 2010
From the data given, most transactions were made in November and August. High indicators of May and April were obtained as a result of Bitcoin protocol developers’ transactions in 2010 and 2011, therefore, we decided to delete these figures. As can be seen from the above chart, in the last 3 years the main large purchases of Bitcoin fall in the autumn. November topped the list for this indicator.
This trend confirms the conjecture about the coordinated action to purchase Bitcoin in November 2014, 2015 and 2017. In this period, ~ 60% of transactions were made.
An analysis of Bitcoin’s chart combined with dates of purchases shows that on the dates in which the “whales” were coordinating, the trends do not deviate either to the higher or lower. Moreover, 80% of the addresses bought the coin at a time when Bitcoin’s cost was within $ 12,000 – $ 15,000. It can be concluded that the “whales” experienced no concerns about the moment of entering the market, because they foresaw the potential for a coin’s price growth. That is, they carried out a fundamental analysis of Bitcoin, which showed the benefit of owning it.
Figure 5. Large Bitcoin purchases by the wallets from the TOP 100 for the entire period of the coin’s existence
Large investors entered the market at the time of mass excitement. This may seem illogical, because large investments are usually made when the price falls. This fact can only mean one thing: investors believe in a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin, even at $ 10,000 – $ 20,000 per coin.
- The research of customer behavior of TOP 100 Bitcoin addresses clearly demonstrates that “whales” bought coins at the peak of its popularity.
- Based on the available data on purchases of crypto currencies by TOP 100 addresses, we found that most transactions occur in August and November, which is associated with an increase in Bitcoin’s capitalization and its popularity in a specific period (2014, 2015 and 2017).
- Over the past month, the TOP 100 addresses included 4 new investors, which indicates the growing popularity of Bitcoin among the world’s largest investors.
- Our extensive study clearly shows that “whales” conduct fundamental analysis of the market, observing the principle of “buy and hold”. They consider Bitcoin as an excellent means of preserving and increasing capital, comparable, for example, with gold.